Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

225
FXUS63 KICT 042001
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon into
  the evening across south central and southeast Kansas. Large
  hail, damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a few brief
  tornadoes are all possible.

- Spotty chances for showers and weak storms through mid week,
  with slightly better chances expected areawide beginning
  Wednesday evening.

- Mostly seasonable temperatures expected Sunday through the
  upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A complex of showers and storms moved through the area earlier this
morning and afternoon and pushed several effective boundaries
through the region. One of these extends across far northeast
Oklahoma, while a secondary boundary spans across south central
Kansas from roughly Kingman County northeast through Chase
County. Thunderstorms were observed along this latter boundary
this afternoon, and models have struggled in their depiction of
storm initiation later today. With this feature pushing through
south central Kansas a bit earlier than previously expected,
currently thinking the best chances for strong to severe
development through the late afternoon and evening hours will
reside in areas primarily along and southeast of the Kansas
Turnpike, though severe activity may extend as far west as
Kingman and Harper Counties. Plenty of instability and 30-40+
kts of deep-layer shear may allow for initial discrete
supercells, especially with development that manages to occur
ahead of the effective front. With enhanced low-level SRH from
backed surface winds, wouldn`t be a surprise to see perhaps a
few brief tornadoes along with large hail with early activity,
though this window may be brief as storms grow upscale quickly.
After this change in storm mode, the primary threats will shift
to damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall that may promote
flash flooding in some areas. Still expecting the severe threat
to diminish generally around midnight, though this may occur
even earlier if storms continue developing earlier than thought
with the last several forecast cycles.

Showers and thunderstorms will shift to the south and east tonight,
and some lingering showers may remain across southeast Kansas into
Sunday. Additionally, opportunities for isolated showers and storms
may persist Monday and Tuesday given a meandering mid/upper wave
overhead, though limited flow aloft should preclude chances for
widespread severe weather. Global models bring a series of mid/upper
waves across the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday, which may
provide the next opportunity for widespread showers and storms to
the forecast area particularly during the evening/overnight hours.

In regards to temperatures, highs in the upper 80s are forecast
Sunday before a return to the low 90s for Monday and Tuesday. A
slight warming trend into the middle to upper 90s may occur
Wednesday heading into next weekend as a mid-level ridge builds over
the Rockies, but rain chances and associated cloud cover toward the
latter half of the week may keep these slightly lower than
currently expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Challenge is ongoing and expected convection this afternoon into
tonight. Ongoing thunderstorms stretching along a boundary from
central Reno to Morris counties continue to develop with some
of the southern attempts becoming more agitated based on
visible satellite. This is contrary to further north when the
clouds quickly dissipated. It will be the area to watch for
influence to the latter part of the day activity. Central Kansas
could be done for the day, but the PROB30s were kept and
shifted later in the event that daytime heating destabilizes
some of those areas. There is lower confidence for KRSL. The
southern activity is questionable with ongoing storms. There
will likely be amendments depending on their evolution. Above
mentioned boundary is playing games with the wind component,
there could be a change to the north northeast with speeds
approaching 15kts and gusts to 25kts as the boundary tracks
southeast. A decent amount of uncertainty persists, and changes
will be needed.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...VJP