Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

643
FXUS63 KICT 100703
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
203 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous storms early this evening through
  tonight, with concerns for severe weather, heavy rainfall,
  and flooding.

- Lingering showers/storms Monday-Tuesday, but severe chances and
  heavy rainfall potential lower.

- Triple digit heat indices mainly southern KS today, cool down
  Monday-Tuesday, warming trend once again mid-late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
will propagate east-southeast across the region, in vicinity of a
strong cold frontal zone sagging slowly south. Thinking coverage
will be most widespread over generally the northern half of KS
within zone of strong 850-700mb warm advection, with activity likely
struggling further south due to warm mid-level temperatures. Due to
continued southeastward propagation, eastern and southeast KS could
eventually see an uptick in storm coverage toward sunrise through
about mid-morning. Given hefty downdraft CAPE and forward
propagating storm-mode, the primary hazard will be 50-70 mph winds,
especially over north-central into northeast and east-central KS.
Activity should tend to wane as the morning progresses.

EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...Thinking current and early
morning thunderstorms will tend to drive the effective cold frontal
zone further south that what most models are projecting, with a
RRFS/HRRR consensus likely reasonable solutions. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and north of
this stalling frontal zone, with the best chances likely south of
roughly Highway 56. Numerous activity will also be aided by deep mid-
upper troughing approaching from the west-northwest.

Combination of strong instability with modest deep layer shear
should support a handful of strong to severe storms, capable of
large hail and damaging winds. Thinking the hail threat will be
earlier in the event, transitioning to mostly damaging winds as the
evening and night progress due to likely upscale growth.
Additionally, high precipitable waters in concert with mid-upper
flow mostly parallel to the stalled frontal zone should support
locally very heavy rainfall and potential flooding concerns with
training storms. Pending interoffice coordination, we will
contemplate a flood watch generally along/south of Highway 56, and
east of Highway 281.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...Lingering showers/storms are expected early week
ahead of the slow moving upper trough, but decreasing instability
and loss of frontal forcing should prevent widespread heavy rainfall
or severe storms.

TEMPERATURES:

Another hot day expected today, especially over south-central and
southeast KS ahead of the frontal zone. Triple digit heat indices
may touch 105 degrees, but will hold off on a heat advisory since
it`s marginal. A cool down into the 80s is expected Monday-Tuesday,
before warming temperatures back into the 90s by mid-late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Main aviation concerns will be storms early this morning and again
Sunday evening.

Complex of storms over north central KS has been tracking
east/southeast over the last several hours and will impact KRSL-KSLN
through 08z, with outflow moving through KGBD. Severe winds will be
possible with this activity. There could be some additional
development further south affecting KHUT-KICT after 09z, but
confidence is much less with this activity. So will just run with a
prob30 at this time. Another round of storms are expected to develop
along the front early Sun evening across southern KS, with some
additional storms tracking out of southwest KS. At this point,
confident is high enough to run with VCTS at KHUT-KICT after 03z.
Severe weather will be possible with these storms.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL