Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXUS63 KICT 141140
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
540 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers, especially early in the day. Rain may be
  locally heavy at times.

- Warm and dry conditions will return on Sunday and last through next
  week. A very high fire danger may develop on Monday for much
  of the area while Extreme fire danger is expected on Tuesday
  for areas along and west of a line from Anthony to Lincoln.

- A very high fire danger may return Wednesday and Thursday
  across much of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A shortwave trough over the Southern Rockies early this morning is
progged to emerge over the Southern Plains as we move through the
day. Showers are expected to linger for areas along and north of the
warm front through much of the day before diminishing from west to
east late in the day or early in the evening. We could see some fog
develop through the morning hours as well with continued low level
moisture advection. Strong storms are no longer anticipated and any
heavy rain should be short-lived with minimal impacts expected. It
will remain mild for mid Feb with highs ranging from the low to mid
50s in central KS to the low to mid 60s near the OK state line.

We could see some fog formation late tonight into early Sunday as
the sfc ridge axis settles over the area and the low level moisture
never gets scoured out. But some guidance maintains some mixing and
confidence in fog remains somewhat low at this time. Lows tonight
will fall into the mid 30s in parts of central KS while far
southeast KS sees lows in the mid/upper 40s.

Sun-Mon...a mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward over
the central CONUS through the period. Rising heights/increasing
thickness will support rising temperatures. Much above average
values are expected with highs in the 60s and 70s. Breezy winds will
return to south central and southeast KS on Mon.

Tue-Fri...A negatively tiled trough is progged to emerge from the
Northern Rockies and impact the Northern Plains on Tue. This will
result in increasing southwesterly winds further south across the
Southern and Central Plains. Southwest flow will allow drier
air to be advected eastward into parts of central KS during the day
on Tuesday. This will help boost temperatures into the upper 70s and
lower 80s while relative humidity falls into the lower 20s resulting
in critical fire weather conditions for areas along and west of
Highway 14. Drier air will overspread the area on Wed in the wake of
a Pacific front. Another shortwave trough impacting the Northern
Plains will drive a cold front south over the area on Thursday
ushering in more seasonable air late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Numerous showers were impacting the region this morning with
widespread IFR/LIFR with low cigs. We may begin to see some
improvement in flight categories this afternoon but this may be
short-lived as high pressure builds into the area late tonight.
Light easterly winds will back to the north late this afternoon
and tonight with speeds around 15 knots at times. Confidence is
increasing for some fog and low ceilings redeveloping tonight
as the residual low level moisture remains in place. Winds may
diminish late as high pressure builds in allowing for some fog
and low cigs once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A very high fire danger is expected for much of the area through the
upcoming week with dry, breezy and mild weather conditions
anticipated.

Tuesday may pose the greatest risk with a combination of above
average temperatures, low relative humidity, and windy conditions
resulting in extreme fire danger for areas along and west of Highway
14.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM